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Simulate

Simulate tests a hypothesis before anything is proposed for approval. Open it with Simulate in the bottom navigation (/simulate). The page has three tabs, in the order you would use them:

TabForLink
Metasearch TrendsSearching the open web for a term, and checking text against the grounding rules./simulate?tab=trends
Causal MatrixThe cause-and-effect structure found by the last simulation./simulate?tab=causal
Swarm IntelligenceRunning simulations and handing the results to Twins. This is the default tab./simulate

Older /lab links redirect here.

Swarm Intelligence

The CONSENSUS BRIEF at the top summarises what the last simulation concluded and what would be handed to the twin queue. It shows:

  • IMPACT SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATION and CONFIDENCE;
  • SIMULATED IMPACTS, with metric, change, risk and horizon;
  • DECISION LEVERS;
  • a validation verdict.

The verdict reads PASS or FAIL, Validating…, The validation couldn’t run or Not validated. Validation starts by itself when a result arrives. You can also start it with Validate, or with Retry after a failure. No simulation yet means no simulation has run.

A switch chooses between two modes: Active Scenarios and New Simulation.

Active Scenarios

PanelShows
SWARM POPULATIONOne agent per inferred scenario, with the counts AGENTS, RUNNING, REPORTED, FAILED and STANDBY, and each agent’s state by domain.
AGENT CONVERGENCEThe nodes that more than one agent’s evidence named.
Domain Nodes, Synapses, Open RulesCounts of each.
ACTIVE SIMULATIONSRunning scenarios with a progress bar. SIMULATION SCENARIOS below lists every scenario by domain. Tap a row to open that scenario’s detail page.
SAVINGS SUMMARYThe Total Identified Savings (USD) and a breakdown by category.

The savings total tells four cases apart:

You seeMeaning
Measuring…Still loading.
Not availableThe request failed. Nothing shown is a measurement.
Not measuredNo summary has been requested yet.
No savings identified in the current action setMeasured, and the result was nothing.

Could not load scenarios means the request failed. It shows the error and a Retry button. No scenarios yet means the list is genuinely empty.

Run a simulation

### Switch to New Simulation Select **New Simulation**. The parameters reset to the server's defaults. ### Choose the rules **SELECTED RULES FOR SIMULATION** lists the rules sent from [Reconcile](/docs/cockpit/reconcile/). You can also tap rule cards under **RULES CATEGORIES** to add or remove them. The × button (**Remove {name}**) drops one. If you select none, every extracted rule is used. ### Pick or name a scenario Tap a card under **SCENARIO CATEGORIES**, or type a name under **CUSTOM SCENARIO**. ### Set the parameters Under **Hypothesis Parameters**, move each slider (0–100%). The server supplies these variables. ### Run it Select **Run Full Simulation**. The button reads **Simulating…** while the run streams. Only one simulation runs at a time. **Save Scenario** keeps the scenario in this session without running it. ### Read the results **SIMULATION RESULTS GENERATED** is followed by: - **Model Confidence**, with a band: **High Reliability**, **Moderate Reliability** or **Low Reliability**; - any **ANOMALIES DETECTED**; - the **FORECAST**; - **SERIES DIAGNOSTICS**. Select **Analyse this series** there for descriptive statistics, stationarity and a recommended model. ### Hand it to Twins Select **Send to Actionable Twins**. **Queued for Twins** confirms the hand-off, and **VIEW IN TWINS** opens the queue. **No actions were produced by this run** means nothing was queued. **The handoff to Twins did not complete** gives the reason. The card is approved in [Twins](/docs/cockpit/twins/), not here.

Live agent activity, at the bottom of the tab, streams every step the agents emit. It is the same feed as on Reconcile.

Scenario detail

Tapping a scenario row opens its detail page (/lab/scenario/<id>). The page shows SCENARIO DETAILS, the REASONING (the rules and variables it used) and, once it has run, its confidence, AI RECOMMENDATION and SIMULATED IMPACTS. A scenario that has not run says No simulation results available yet. Please run the simulation to see impacts and recommendations. Scenario could not be found. means the id is unknown.

Metasearch Trends

  • TERM SEARCH runs a live query against the sovereign metasearch engine. Type a term (Search a regulatory, market or operational term…) and select Search. Each result shows its host, its ENGINE SCORE (a ranking score, not a confidence), a snippet and Open source. No results means the engine ran and the web returned nothing. The search couldn’t run means it failed.
  • GROUNDING GATE runs your text through the same OpenBias rules that guard the agent call. Nothing is sent and nothing is logged. Type the text and select Check this text. The verdict is Would be refused or No rule fired, with the number of rules evaluated. Show the {count} rules lists them.
  • LONGITUDINAL TRENDS charts the forecast and anomalies from the last simulation. Until you run one, it says No series analysed.

Causal Matrix

The matrix is built from the evidence traces of the last simulation.

  • CAUSAL TOPOLOGY shows which node moves which, and how strongly. SUB-DOMAIN CAUSAL MATRIX tabulates the same links by SOURCE, RELATION, TARGET and SIGNIFICANCE. No causal evidence yet means no simulation has run.
  • INTERVENTION sets one node and reads the effect on another. Pick Intervene on, enter Set to, pick Read effect on, and select Compute effect. The result shows EFFECT and NEW TARGET VALUE, and the note under it explains how the effect was computed.
  • BAYESIAN POSTERIOR gives the posterior probabilities for a target node. Enter an observed state for any node, leave the rest blank, choose the TARGET, and select Infer posterior. The inference returned no probabilities means it ran and returned nothing.

RPCs behind this page

  • HypothesisService.GetHypothesisVariables, InteractiveSimulate (bidirectional stream), ValidateHypothesis, SendToTwins.
  • AnalysisService.AnalyzeTimeSeries, AnalyzeDescriptiveStats, AnalyzeCausal, InferBayesian.
  • MetasearchService.SearchTerms, EvaluateBias, ListBiasRules.
  • TwinsService.GetSavingsSummary.
  • ActivityService.SubscribeAgentActivity.

See the API reference.